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A hypertension risk score for adults: a population-based cross-sectional study from the Dubai Household Survey 2019
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Ibrahim Mahmoud, Nabil Sulaiman, Amal Hussein, Heba Mamdouh, Wafa K. AL Nakhi, Hamid Y. Hussain, Gamal M. Ibrahim
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Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021064. Published online September 8, 2021
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021064
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 Abstract
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The aim of this study was to develop a risk score model for predicting hypertension specific to the population of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to facilitate prevention and early intervention.
METHODS A retrospective analysis of data from the Dubai Household Health Survey 2019 was conducted. Demographic and physical parameters, as well as blood glucose levels, were included in the data. The risk factors for hypertension were identified using bivariate analysis. A risk score model was developed using the enter method, where all significant predictors of hypertension in bivariate analyses were entered in a single step with the primary outcome of hypertension status (yes/no). The model was validated internally by splitting the data into Emirati and non-Emirati populations.
RESULTS A total of 2,533 subjects were studied. The significant risk factors for hypertension identified were male sex, older age (≥40 years), education level, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidaemia. The model showed a high discrimination ability between individuals with and without hypertension, with an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.79), excellent sensitivity (81.0%; 95% CI, 71.9 to 88.2) and moderate specificity (56.0%; 95% CI, 45.7 to 65.9).
CONCLUSIONS The model developed by this study is simple, convenient, and based on readily available demographic and medical characteristics. This risk score model could support initial hypertension screening and provide an effective tool for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.
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Summary
Key Message
To prevent hypertension in Dubai's adult population, primary health care physicians can use our risk score model to recommend preventative measures, with a focus on men over 40 years old, with a low educational level, who are obese, and who have other morbidities, such as diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia.
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